The year 2009, for the stock market, is expected to be a year with two distinct trends:
consolidation during the first half and then building on that consolidation, slow growth in the second half. Market participants feel 2009 will be a year markedly different from 2008, which saw value destruction of unimaginable proportions.
"The market has corrected dramatically this year (2008). So I don't expect any major correction next year,'' said UK Sinha, CMD, UTI Mutual Fund. "We are near the bottom now,'' Sinha added.
The first half of the year is expected to be the phase of adjustment. Once that is over, the stock market could start looking up from the second half.
"The market usually turns 6-9 months ahead of the actual economy. So we are expecting the markets to turn in the second half of 2009,'' said Naresh Kothari, president & co-head, institutional equities, Edelweiss Securities.
"From the third quarter, we would begin inching up, but a V-shaped recovery is ruled out,'' feels Aseem Dhru, MD, HDFC Securities.
One of the main reasons for the recovery is the impending Lok Sabha elections by April 2009. In India, general elections mean some amount of uncertainty with inherent downside risks and investors, including foreign fund managers do not like uncertainty. Brokers and fund managers expect recovery to start after the new government is in place.
The year would also see the Indian market in a different league than most of the other popular investment destinations. Officially a number of developed nations are already in recession. But in India, everyone is talking about the pace of growth coming down. "While the world has to battle negative growth (recession), India has to deal with a slowdown,'' said Dhru.
The marked difference between India and the West could be gauged from a conversation with the head of a UK agency. "You (India) are sorry that growth could be 5-6-7% next year. Come on. Give us that kind of growth and we will be on top of the world,'' said the official.
consolidation during the first half and then building on that consolidation, slow growth in the second half. Market participants feel 2009 will be a year markedly different from 2008, which saw value destruction of unimaginable proportions.
"The market has corrected dramatically this year (2008). So I don't expect any major correction next year,'' said UK Sinha, CMD, UTI Mutual Fund. "We are near the bottom now,'' Sinha added.
The first half of the year is expected to be the phase of adjustment. Once that is over, the stock market could start looking up from the second half.
"The market usually turns 6-9 months ahead of the actual economy. So we are expecting the markets to turn in the second half of 2009,'' said Naresh Kothari, president & co-head, institutional equities, Edelweiss Securities.
"From the third quarter, we would begin inching up, but a V-shaped recovery is ruled out,'' feels Aseem Dhru, MD, HDFC Securities.
One of the main reasons for the recovery is the impending Lok Sabha elections by April 2009. In India, general elections mean some amount of uncertainty with inherent downside risks and investors, including foreign fund managers do not like uncertainty. Brokers and fund managers expect recovery to start after the new government is in place.
The year would also see the Indian market in a different league than most of the other popular investment destinations. Officially a number of developed nations are already in recession. But in India, everyone is talking about the pace of growth coming down. "While the world has to battle negative growth (recession), India has to deal with a slowdown,'' said Dhru.
The marked difference between India and the West could be gauged from a conversation with the head of a UK agency. "You (India) are sorry that growth could be 5-6-7% next year. Come on. Give us that kind of growth and we will be on top of the world,'' said the official.
No comments:
Post a Comment